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Wednesday, March 21, 2007

 

Battle Won, War Still To Be Fought

At last when confronted with the frightening reality, India unleashed it batting potential in no uncertain terms and posted the highest total in the history of the Cup. Its only four hundred-plus score! I would like to interpret it as a warning to the rest of the contenders that India has after its trials and tribulations during its training sojourn has acquired the strength to roar. Teams will ignore it only at their peril.


Even as a patriotic Indian, I believe in it only partially. I am sure this batting line up on friendly tracks is capable of achieving great heights. But such heroics happen only rarely in India’s case. There is a psychological barrier which prevents India from flowing spontaneously like a well oiled batting machine regularly.


Now the World Cup record for the highest total, greatest victory margin, the maximum number of sixes etc belong to India. Great. But let us not forget that the battle has just begun. The battle to find a place in the Super Eight. This mammoth total has only ensured that in the event of point tie, India would have the advantage of a better net run rate.


So far so good. But for this memorable Caribbean saga to become meaningful, India has to beat Sri Lanka. Period. On that victory depends the entire hopes and aspirations of a huge chunk of the world’s population.


Let us take a look at the arithmetical jugglery which would take into the next round. The present point position taking into account the NRR is:-


1)      Sri Lanka  with two matches against India and Bangladesh remaining- 2 points


2)      India with  one match against Sri Lanka remaining – 2 points


3)       Bangladesh with two matches against Sri Lanka and Bermuda remainig-2 points


4)      Bermuda with one match against Bangladesh remaining- 0 points.


So Bermuda is out. Among the other teams more than one possibility can arise pushing one team out. Sri Lanka should be expected to take care of Bangladesh. So they should have four points. Bangladesh should be able to dispose of Bermuda perhaps much less spectacularly than was done by the Indians. So they also should have four points. With this point position as the indicator, these two teams should represent Group B in the next round. Because India after two matches against relatively weak teams has only two points and the best NRR. So everything hinges on the Sri Lanka- India match. It seems the knock out stage has been forced on India a little too soon. History points to some occasions when India came out with flying colors on those occasions.


But this is a new tournament and a new match. India’s enemy is a team which is tipped to win the cup or at least to do well in this tournament. And they have begun well too. Sri Lanka has a reasonably strong batting line up but it is not as strong as India’s. On any day given the same conditions India’s mighty batting machine would outshine Sri Lanka’s. I don’t know if the same can be said about the bowling. India can boast of the best bowling outfit which ever left its shores for the cup. But I doubt if it is enough. Sri Lanka has at least two accomplished bowlers who can exploit the pitch conditions of the Trinidad track. Vaas and Meharoof. And Malinga can be erratically dangerous. Among the spinners Murali has the guile to slow down and take wickets against any team in the world. India may have the reputation of being the best spin-playing team in the world. But Murali is no ordinary spinner. Blessed with a deformity, he can be lethal even against the best especially when he gets a whiff of the batsman’s aggressive intentions.


So given the track conditions, India can not hope realistically to post a big score against Sri Lanka. So the only way to neutralize this disadvantage is to strengthen its bowling. I would play Pathan and four other bowlers. It could be four pacers and a spinner or three pacers and two spinners. If Pathan fails miserably-that is a risk- India can look up to its other four bowlers to take up the extra workload. If he clicks! India can storm the Sri Lankan citadel on all four cylinders and can bat very deep down to number eight! There is no other equation which would enable India to subdue Sri Lanka, if you ask me.   


There is one more change I would like to effect. Karthik in, Uthappa out. On a seaming track with some carry, Uthappa can be a sitting duck to the experienced Vaas and company. Let India open with Ganguly and Karthik. I know what I am suggesting is against the interests of a young boy seeking level playing grounds. Promise him that failure here would not be counted against him. Their job should be to keep wickets in hand at the end of the third Power Play. In other words, to prevent a collapse from happening. A close study of the pitch coupled with the assessment of one’s rivals strength would help you to arrive at a score possible and hopefully defendable. And bat for it. Then it is the job of the five-strong bowling attack to put up a spirited display which would enable India’s onward march


One undesirable development during this World Cup is undue dependence on toss. On pitches with some juice in them everyone would like to field. And this factor out of any one’s control like the unwelcome showers should not unduly influence the fortunes of such a mega cricket event. This trend of worrying about the toss is likely to continue at least till the end of the first round of matches. Coming back to match-specific considerations, one can only hope Dravid calls correctly and does not forget that eventful morning of the match against Bangladesh! India can’t afford another wrong decision from the skipper!


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